Tue, Jan 10, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 211 | 121 | 338 |
| CGY | 48 | 13 | 13 | 614 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:54CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Jarome Iginla, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 7:32CGYCory SarichAssists: Mikael Backlund, Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 13:12CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Olli Jokinen, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P1 16:38CGYTJ BrodiePPGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Curtis Glencross · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 14:48NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Adam Henrique, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–4
- P2 16:38CGYLee StempniakAssists: Mikael Backlund, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P2 17:24NJDAdam HenriqueSHAssists: Zach Parise, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 6:04NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Kurtis Foster · Snap, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 8:49CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Olli Jokinen, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:37NJDBryce Salvador: Interference2 min
- P1 13:53CGYCurtis Glencross: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:53NJDAdam Henrique: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 13:53CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:32NJDEric Boulton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:47CGYClay Wilson: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:39NJDEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:39CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:14NJDMark Fayne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:52CGYJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:27CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:26NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:39NJDDainius Zubrus: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique8:09
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–1goals 1–1
- Boulton – Carter – Palmieri3:52
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Henrique2:37
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Sykora – Zalewski – Tedenby2:48
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Larsson15:24
xG 0.99–0.33 (75%)attempts 20–3goals 1–1
- Volchenkov – Foster13:29
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Fayne12:56
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 15–8goals 0–3
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Backlund – Bouma8:06
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Comeau – Jones – Byron9:42
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Horak4:16
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross11:52
xG 0.30–0.87 (26%)attempts 3–19goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Wilson11:00
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Sarich – Brodie15:59
xG 0.42–0.43 (50%)attempts 7–15goals 3–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler14:42
xG 0.45–0.95 (32%)attempts 4–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).