Thu, Jan 12, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 412 | 011 | 19 | 532 |
| TBL | 111 | 118 | 07 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 4:41CARJiri TlustyAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 14:36TBLNate ThompsonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 15:10CARJay HarrisonGWGAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P1 16:18CARJiri TlustyAssists: Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu · Tip-in, 0.24 xG4–1
- P2 2:49TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Bruno Gervais, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 13:41CARTim BrentAssists: Anthony Stewart, Jay Harrison · Snap, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:08CARJay Harrison: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:13TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:13CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:16CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:39TBLMartin St. Louis: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Tlusty15:07
xG 1.12–0.55 (67%)attempts 22–13goals 3–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter12:52
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Brent – Stewart – Sutter8:22
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Ponikarovsky – Jokinen – Samson12:26
xG 0.24–0.91 (21%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Faulk17:42
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Spacek – McBain13:45
xG 1.03–0.80 (56%)attempts 20–17goals 2–1
- Allen – Gleason19:09
xG 0.40–0.86 (32%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Pyatt – Connolly2:51
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos3:52
xG 0.03–0.03 (55%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos6:22
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Moore3:15
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Gervais8:29
xG 0.70–0.09 (89%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Brewer – Gilroy2:36
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Kubina – Mikkelson3:30
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).