Tue, Jan 24, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 0, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 06 | 010 | 022 |
| NYR | 111 | 18 | 112 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05NYRRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Anton Stralman, Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.50 xG0–1
- P2 13:22NYRJohn MitchellAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 16:22NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.22 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:14NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:14WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:36WPGJim Slater: Interference2 min
- P2 5:33NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:33WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:53WPGEric Fehr: Holding2 min
- P2 16:43NYRDan Girardi: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:49WPGEric Fehr: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:29WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:05NYRMarian Gaborik: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little8:28
xG 0.77–0.12 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass6:31
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Ladd6:46
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Wheeler – Little5:25
xG 0.09–0.82 (10%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Jones9:27
xG 0.61–0.10 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian5:42
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Oduya2:44
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Dubinsky – Callahan5:14
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Richards – Fedotenko – Prust6:27
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Anisimov3:45
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust4:34
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh16:45
xG 1.44–0.41 (78%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto15:24
xG 1.06–0.58 (64%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Staal – Stralman2:10
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).