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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 24, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.

TBL winsCBJ wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 4:34Shot by Gervais, saved by Sanford
  3. P1 5:22Shot by Downie, saved by Sanford
  4. P1 5:58Shot by Thompson, saved by Sanford
  5. P1 5:59Nash: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Brewer, Moore, Thompson, Smith · CBJ Prospal, Pahlsson, Johnson, Nash, Clitsome

  6. P1 6:27Shot by Dorsett, saved by Garon5v4
  7. P1 6:32Shot by Dorsett, saved by Garon5v4
  8. P1 7:03Shot by Russell, saved by Garon5v4
  9. P1 7:31Shot by Mikkelson, saved by Sanford5v4
  10. P1 7:50Shot by Mikkelson, saved by Sanford5v4
  11. P1 7:53Shot by St. Louis, saved by Sanford5v4
  12. P1 8:34Shot by Nash, saved by Garon
  13. P1 13:20Goal by Angelidis, unassisted+18 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Brewer, Angelidis, Smith, Purcell · CBJ MacKenzie, Tyutin, Lebda, Boll, Gillies

  14. P1 14:08Shot by Clark, saved by Sanford
  15. P1 15:07Goal by Lebda (Brassard, Umberger)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Gervais, Downie, Mikkelson, Stamkos · CBJ Umberger, Tyutin, Lebda, Brassard, Johansen

  16. P1 15:56Shot by Kubina, saved by Sanford
  17. P1 17:19Shot by Moore, saved by Sanford
  18. P1 19:30Shot by Thompson, saved by Sanford
  19. P1 19:38Shot by Thompson, saved by Sanford
  20. P1 0:00Period end
  21. P2 0:00Period start
  22. P2 1:31Shot by Umberger, saved by Garon
  23. P2 1:45Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Sanford
  24. P2 3:17Shot by Moore, saved by Sanford
  25. P2 3:19Clitsome: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Brewer, Moore, Thompson, Smith · CBJ Prospal, Vermette, Johnson, Nash, Clitsome

  26. P2 5:01Shot by Gervais, saved by Sanford5v4
  27. P2 5:34Shot by Nash, saved by Garon
  28. P2 6:58Shot by Clark, saved by Sanford
  29. P2 7:23MacKenzie: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Clark, Lecavalier, Gervais, Angelidis, Purcell · CBJ MacKenzie, Methot, Boll, Gillies, Moore

  30. P2 8:19Goal by Lecavalier (Gervais, St. Louis)5v4+19 pts WP

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Lecavalier, Gervais, Mikkelson, Stamkos · CBJ Vermette, Tyutin, Lebda, Russell

  31. P2 8:31Shot by Moore, saved by Sanford
  32. P2 8:52Shot by Kubina, saved by Sanford
  33. P2 8:58Shot by Smith, saved by Sanford
  34. P2 11:23Shot by Mikkelson, saved by Sanford
  35. P2 11:59Shot by Gervais, saved by Sanford
  36. P2 12:09Shot by Gervais, saved by Sanford
  37. P2 14:34Shot by Lebda, saved by Garon
  38. P2 14:35Gilroy: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Clark, St. Louis, Downie, Stamkos, Gilroy · CBJ Umberger, Tyutin, Lebda, Brassard, Johansen

  39. P2 16:30Shot by Johansen, saved by Garon4v5
  40. P2 16:49Shot by Brassard, saved by Garon
  41. P2 16:56Goal by St. Louis (Lecavalier)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Brewer, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Purcell · CBJ Pahlsson, Johnson, Russell, Dorsett, Moore

  42. P2 18:35Shot by Nash, saved by Garon
  43. P2 0:00Period end
  44. P3 0:00Period start
  45. P3 1:02Purcell: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Lecavalier, Moore, Gervais, Thompson, Mikkelson · CBJ Prospal, Vermette, Nash, Methot, Moore

  46. P3 1:07Shot by Prospal, saved by Garon4v5
  47. P3 1:25Shot by Nash, saved by Garon4v5
  48. P3 1:35Shot by Prospal, saved by Garon4v5
  49. P3 3:08Shot by Boll, saved by Garon
  50. P3 3:34Shot by Stamkos, saved by Sanford
  51. P3 4:07Shot by Dorsett, saved by Garon
  52. P3 5:40Goal by Johansen (Umberger)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Clark, Moore, Thompson, Labrie, Gilroy · CBJ Umberger, Tyutin, Lebda, Brassard, Johansen

  53. P3 6:17Shot by Stamkos, saved by Sanford6v5
  54. P3 6:19Gillies: Kneeing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Lecavalier, Mikkelson, Purcell, Stamkos, Gilroy · CBJ MacKenzie, Tyutin, Lebda, Boll, Gillies

  55. P3 7:09Shot by Gervais, saved by Sanford5v4
  56. P3 8:10Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Sanford5v4
  57. P3 11:01Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Sanford
  58. P3 11:29Goal by Thompson (Moore, Smith)+11 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Brewer, Moore, Thompson, Smith · CBJ Prospal, Vermette, Nash, Methot, Moore

  59. P3 12:59Shot by Johnson, saved by Garon
  60. P3 13:13Shot by Gillies, saved by Garon
  61. P3 13:59Shot by Smith, saved by Sanford
  62. P3 14:15Shot by Vermette, saved by Garon
  63. P3 16:00Shot by Russell, saved by Garon
  64. P3 16:18Shot by Lebda, saved by Garon
  65. P3 17:18Shot by Methot, saved by Garon
  66. P3 17:36Shot by Johnson, saved by Garon
  67. P3 0:00Period end
  68. P3 0:00Final