Fri, Feb 3, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 1, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 18 | 07 | 121 |
| FLA | 110 | 112 | 08 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:46FLAKris VersteegPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 11:29WPGBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 14:27FLASean BergenheimGWGAssists: Marcel Goc, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:05WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:10FLASean Bergenheim: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:22WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:59FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:59WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:22WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Glass6:48
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Fehr8:39
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Gagnon – Burmistrov9:22
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little17:15
xG 0.38–1.12 (26%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Stuart11:10
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian14:28
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian2:59
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim11:52
xG 0.76–0.09 (89%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg14:20
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Bradley – Madden – Barch5:27
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Santorelli – Matthias10:00
xG 0.09–0.21 (31%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison12:25
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Campbell – Gudbranson14:55
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Strachan – Ellerby13:16
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).