Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 216 | 19 | 215 | 540 |
| OTT | 012 | 021 | 016 | 049 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:47TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:02TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 8:25TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 5:39TORLuke SchennAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 12:17TORCody FransonPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur · Snap, 0.09 xG5–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:29TORCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P1 10:37TORJoffrey Lupul: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:23OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27OTTErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:06OTTZenon Konopka: Interference2 min
- P2 17:43TORClarke MacArthur: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:04OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:03OTTFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Lombardi – Crabb8:29
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin10:03
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak12:21
xG 0.77–0.73 (51%)attempts 16–21goals 3–0
- Armstrong – Steckel – Brown9:20
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Franson10:24
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Schenn – Gardiner12:47
xG 0.96–0.94 (51%)attempts 20–18goals 2–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson13:53
xG 0.24–0.74 (25%)attempts 7–26goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Greening – Foligno2:56
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith3:44
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening2:32
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – O'Brien5:26
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Cowen6:16
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Kuba – Karlsson16:57
xG 0.68–0.65 (51%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen5:28
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).