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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Ottawa Senators 0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.

OTT winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:13Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Reimer
  3. P1 1:44Shot by Crabb, saved by Anderson
  4. P1 2:39Shot by Phillips, saved by Reimer
  5. P1 4:01Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  6. P1 4:07Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  7. P1 4:08Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  8. P1 7:18Shot by Gonchar, saved by Reimer
  9. P1 7:29Franson: Interference (2 min)6v5

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Spezza, Foligno, Turris, Cowen · TOR Liles, Lupul, Franson, Kessel, Bozak

  10. P1 7:44Shot by Spezza, saved by Reimer5v4
  11. P1 7:55Shot by Gonchar, saved by Reimer5v4
  12. P1 8:17Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson5v4
  13. P1 8:22Shot by Lombardi, saved by Anderson5v4
  14. P1 9:00Shot by Turris, saved by Reimer5v4
  15. P1 10:37Lupul: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Carkner, Spezza, Michalek, Foligno · TOR Lupul, Grabovski, Franson, Kessel, Gardiner

  16. P1 11:37Shot by Neil, saved by Reimer5v4
  17. P1 12:13Shot by Cowen, saved by Reimer5v4
  18. P1 13:47Goal by Kessel (Bozak, Gardiner)+17 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Phillips, Carkner, Daugavins, Turris · TOR Lupul, Kessel, Schenn, Gardiner, Bozak

  19. P1 14:39Shot by Kuba, saved by Reimer
  20. P1 14:44Shot by Neil, saved by Reimer
  21. P1 14:52Shot by Greening, saved by Reimer
  22. P1 14:57Shot by Karlsson, saved by Reimer
  23. P1 15:12Shot by Gardiner, saved by Anderson
  24. P1 16:23Gonchar: Hooking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Michalek, Turris, Cowen · TOR MacArthur, Grabovski, Kessel, Kulemin, Schenn, Gardiner

  25. P1 17:02Goal by Phaneuf (Kessel, Lupul)4v5+15 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Konopka, Michalek, Cowen · TOR Liles, Lupul, Phaneuf, Kessel, Bozak

  26. P1 17:26Shot by Steckel, saved by Anderson
  27. P1 17:27Condra: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Spezza, Greening, Condra, Karlsson · TOR Liles, Armstrong, Steckel, Brown, Gunnarsson

  28. P1 18:03Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson4v5
  29. P1 18:24Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson4v5
  30. P1 18:42Shot by MacArthur, saved by Anderson4v5
  31. P1 18:57Shot by Franson, saved by Anderson4v5
  32. P1 18:59Shot by Grabovski, saved by Anderson4v5
  33. P1 19:04Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson4v5
  34. P1 0:00Period end
  35. P2 0:00Period start
  36. P2 0:22Shot by Turris, saved by Reimer
  37. P2 0:47Shot by Karlsson, saved by Reimer
  38. P2 1:34Shot by Smith, saved by Reimer
  39. P2 1:40Shot by Greening, saved by Reimer
  40. P2 1:46Shot by Smith, saved by Reimer
  41. P2 2:18Shot by Spezza, saved by Reimer
  42. P2 2:50Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer
  43. P2 3:06Konopka: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Konopka, Daugavins, O'Brien, Karlsson · TOR Liles, MacArthur, Grabovski, Franson, Kulemin

  44. P2 3:21Shot by Liles, saved by Anderson4v5
  45. P2 3:59Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson4v5
  46. P2 5:03Shot by Gardiner, saved by Anderson4v5
  47. P2 6:25Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer
  48. P2 6:51Shot by Turris, saved by Reimer
  49. P2 7:31Shot by Lombardi, saved by Anderson
  50. P2 8:10Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  51. P2 8:25Goal by Bozak (Kessel, Franson)+9 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Greening, Condra, Smith, Cowen · TOR Liles, Lupul, Franson, Kessel, Bozak

  52. P2 8:55Shot by Kuba, saved by Reimer
  53. P2 9:14Shot by Konopka, saved by Reimer
  54. P2 9:18Shot by Karlsson, saved by Reimer
  55. P2 10:18Shot by Neil, saved by Reimer
  56. P2 10:43Shot by Turris, saved by Reimer
  57. P2 11:07Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  58. P2 11:20Shot by Karlsson, saved by Reimer
  59. P2 11:37Shot by Franson, saved by Anderson
  60. P2 12:19Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer
  61. P2 13:35Shot by Konopka, saved by Reimer
  62. P2 14:29Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  63. P2 17:19Shot by Phillips, saved by Reimer
  64. P2 17:25Shot by Spezza, saved by Reimer
  65. P2 17:43MacArthur: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Phillips, Spezza, Michalek, Greening · TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Bozak

  66. P2 18:58Shot by Greening, saved by Reimer5v4
  67. P2 19:48Shot by O'Brien, saved by Reimer
  68. P2 0:00Period end
  69. P3 0:00Period start
  70. P3 1:28Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  71. P3 4:29Shot by Condra, saved by Reimer
  72. P3 3:37Shot by MacArthur, saved by Anderson
  73. P3 4:34Shot by Spezza, saved by Reimer
  74. P3 5:39Goal by Schenn (Lupul, Bozak)+1 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Carkner, Konopka, Turris, Cowen · TOR Lupul, Kessel, Schenn, Gardiner, Bozak

  75. P3 7:19Shot by Smith, saved by Reimer
  76. P3 7:57Shot by MacArthur, saved by Anderson
  77. P3 8:13Shot by Kuba, saved by Reimer
  78. P3 8:21Shot by Kuba, saved by Reimer
  79. P3 8:35Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  80. P3 8:45Shot by Schenn, saved by Anderson
  81. P3 9:02Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer
  82. P3 9:38Shot by Neil, saved by Reimer
  83. P3 9:36Shot by Kuba, saved by Reimer
  84. P3 10:22Shot by Lombardi, saved by Anderson
  85. P3 10:56Shot by Crabb, saved by Anderson
  86. P3 11:04Carkner: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Carkner, Michalek, Turris, Cowen · TOR Connolly, Lombardi, Crabb, Schenn, Gardiner

  87. P3 12:17Goal by Franson (Grabovski, MacArthur)4v50 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Condra, Smith, Cowen · TOR MacArthur, Grabovski, Franson, Kulemin, Gardiner

  88. P3 13:31Shot by Lombardi, saved by Anderson
  89. P3 13:42Shot by O'Brien, saved by Reimer
  90. P3 13:47Shot by O'Brien, saved by Reimer
  91. P3 14:39Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  92. P3 14:47Shot by Foligno, saved by Reimer
  93. P3 14:58Shot by Kulemin, saved by Anderson
  94. P3 15:30Shot by Cowen, saved by Reimer
  95. P3 16:10Shot by Brown, saved by Anderson
  96. P3 16:13Shot by Steckel, saved by Anderson
  97. P3 16:42Shot by Turris, saved by Reimer
  98. P3 17:23Shot by Condra, saved by Reimer
  99. P3 17:38Shot by Smith, saved by Reimer
  100. P3 18:03Kuba: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Spezza, Michalek, O'Brien, Karlsson · TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Bozak

  101. P3 18:15Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Anderson4v5
  102. P3 19:26Shot by Condra, saved by Reimer4v5
  103. P3 0:00Period end
  104. P3 0:00Final