Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 117 | 19 | 110 | 01 | 2 | 437 |
| NYI | 39 | 09 | 011 | 09 | 0 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 5:32BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 16:00NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.47 xG1–2
- P1 17:17NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Kyle Okposo, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 18:41BUFDerek RoyAssists: Ville Leino, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 11:46BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Tyler Myers, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI PA Parenteau stopped
- 2. BUF Brad Boyes scored
- 3. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 4. BUF Jason Pominville scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:04BUFBrad Boyes: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:00NYINino Niederreiter: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:09NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:09BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- OT 2:28BUFVille Leino: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Pominville – Leino17:43
xG 1.10–0.43 (72%)attempts 31–9goals 1–1
- Boyes – Gaustad – Kaleta8:22
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- McCormick – Ellis – Adam5:58
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Gerbe – Ennis14:50
xG 0.28–1.00 (22%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Weber15:45
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Myers19:40
xG 0.78–0.57 (58%)attempts 23–13goals 1–0
- Regehr – Leopold16:53
xG 0.30–0.69 (30%)attempts 23–14goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Nielsen – Grabner13:07
xG 0.65–0.25 (73%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares20:04
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 13–31goals 0–1
- Rakhshani – Bailey – Martin8:33
xG 0.04–0.33 (11%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Wallace – Niederreiter7:49
xG 0.06–0.60 (8%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Reese10:54
xG 0.81–0.11 (88%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Reese – MacDonald2:30
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Streit – Reese4:35
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).