Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 27 | 06 | 320 |
| TBL | 19 | 417 | 18 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37TBLNate ThompsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 3:54FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Kris Versteeg, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 1:42TBLVincent LecavalierUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 4:22TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Ryan Shannon, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 7:06FLAMikael SamuelssonAssists: Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 12:36TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P2 15:08TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Shannon · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–5
- P2 19:14FLASean BergenheimAssists: Marcel Goc, Tyson Strachan · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 19:39TBLMartin St. LouisENAssists: Steven Stamkos, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:40FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:24TBLSteve Downie: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:22TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:10FLASean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:20TBLTom Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:50FLAKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim12:21
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 14–11goals 2–2
- Kopecky – Santorelli – Matthias7:06
xG 0.07–0.20 (25%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bradley – Madden – Barch5:50
xG 0.10–0.34 (23%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg11:21
xG 0.13–0.67 (16%)attempts 9–10goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- Strachan – Ellerby13:13
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Weaver – Garrison14:01
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Campbell – Gudbranson13:54
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestDownie – Purcell – Stamkos13:12
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Moore – Thompson – Wyman4:02
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 2–6goals 1–1
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Shannon5:40
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 3–1
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Pyatt4:00
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman10:14
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Gervais – Mikkelson7:11
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gervais – Hedman2:36
xG 0.09–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).