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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa

Florida Panthers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.

TBL winsFLA wins

Who was on the ice

Model-based

Line matchups and every shift of the game.

Line matchups

TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against FLA's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.

Samuelsson–Goc–BergenheimWeiss–Fleischmann–VersteegKopecky–Santorelli–MatthiasBradley–Madden–BarchBradley–Madden–MatthiasWeaver–GarrisonCampbell–GudbransonStrachan–EllerbyCampbell–EllerbyCampbell–WeaverGarrison–GudbransonCampbell–Garrison
Downie–Purcell–Stamkos3:170.00–0.031:390.06–0.003:210.20–0.071:410.04–0.000:470.00–0.003:380.10–0.067:360.13–0.03
Moore–Thompson–Pyatt0:430.00–0.142:550.03–0.050:450.00–0.000:460.00–0.000:440.00–0.001:030.02–0.004:340.01–0.180:360.00–0.04
St. Louis–Lecavalier–Shannon1:530.22–0.290:370.07–0.000:440.00–0.003:380.00–0.341:180.17–0.040:300.12–0.00
Moore–Thompson–Wyman3:220.24–0.070:360.14–0.041:310.09–0.001:100.00–0.04
St. Louis–Lecavalier–Pyatt2:050.07–0.070:380.00–0.001:040.08–0.101:160.07–0.041:230.08–0.131:080.00–0.08
Wyman–Stamkos–Connolly0:430.00–0.000:320.00–0.000:380.00–0.00
St. Louis–Shannon–Connolly0:440.07–0.000:340.02–0.000:440.07–0.000:320.02–0.00
Brewer–Hedman0:360.06–0.094:210.42–0.051:300.00–0.010:460.00–0.002:190.06–0.152:130.10–0.003:110.08–0.040:390.02–0.000:370.00–0.001:060.26–0.04
Clark–Kubina3:480.10–0.161:420.00–0.002:030.06–0.002:510.00–0.001:300.16–0.003:280.00–0.140:390.00–0.00
Gervais–Mikkelson1:450.00–0.021:490.07–0.001:300.22–0.001:500.22–0.003:080.00–0.061:140.00–0.03
Kubina–Brewer2:470.14–0.070:500.00–0.000:360.14–0.041:330.00–0.001:130.00–0.04
Clark–Gilroy2:020.00–0.030:500.07–0.031:110.00–0.021:400.07–0.03
Clark–Hedman1:320.03–0.040:530.00–0.041:380.03–0.08
Gervais–Hedman0:530.09–0.000:560.00–0.030:510.09–0.00
Gilroy–Hedman1:190.15–0.001:190.15–0.00
Brewer–Gilroy0:320.08–0.101:170.08–0.10
Kubina–Mikkelson0:360.12–0.000:460.12–0.00
Shift chart

Every shift, one row per player.

P1P2P3EndMoore FWyman FThompson FPyatt FSt. Louis FLecavalier FDownie FPurcell FStamkos FConnolly FShannon FBrewer DKubina DClark DHedman DGervais DMikkelson DGilroy DGaron GWeiss FFleischmann FVersteeg FBergenheim FSamuelsson FGoc FSantorelli FMatthias FKopecky FMadden FBarch FBradley FGudbranson DCampbell DGarrison DWeaver DEllerby DStrachan DClemmensen GFoster G
TBLFLAFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.

Shift totals

Brian CampbellFLA2826:330:572:2053
Victor HedmanTBL3123:410:461:2623
Eric BrewerTBL2723:040:512:1745
Steven StamkosTBL2822:520:491:2143
Stephen WeissFLA2621:360:502:3435
Jason GarrisonFLA2621:160:491:5633
Kris VersteegFLA2720:120:452:1142
Teddy PurcellTBL2419:520:501:2143
Mike WeaverFLA2219:420:541:5612
Martin St. LouisTBL2219:120:521:4031
Pavel KubinaTBL2519:110:461:5516
Brett ClarkTBL2919:060:401:1113
Mikael SamuelssonFLA2419:000:482:1663
Tomas FleischmannFLA3118:520:371:0843
Marcel GocFLA2618:350:431:0132
Steve DownieTBL2218:310:511:4512
Nate ThompsonTBL2417:520:452:2916
Keaton EllerbyFLA2417:400:441:1521
Sean BergenheimFLA2516:420:401:0733
Dominic MooreTBL2316:410:441:1314
Erik GudbransonFLA2416:360:421:1334
Vincent LecavalierTBL2115:410:451:2131
Tomas KopeckyFLA2315:390:412:0124
Tom PyattTBL2215:070:412:2913
Ryan ShannonTBL1913:450:431:0832
Tyson StrachanFLA2013:290:401:1721
Brendan MikkelsonTBL2312:390:331:2031
Bruno GervaisTBL1912:110:381:1401
John MaddenFLA1712:070:431:1711
Mike SantorelliFLA1711:220:401:0711
Shawn MatthiasFLA1910:470:340:5313
Matt BradleyFLA159:370:380:5910
JT WymanTBL159:230:381:0903
Matt GilroyTBL128:020:401:1111
Brett ConnollyTBL107:100:431:0300
Krys BarchFLA96:160:420:5910