Wed, Feb 8, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 0, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 012 | 07 | 017 | 036 |
| BUF | 29 | 211 | 29 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:23BUFChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 14:49BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Ville Leino, Mike Weber · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 1:52BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 18:11BUFPatrick KaletaAssists: Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–4
- P3 1:18BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Ville Leino, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–5
- P3 18:58BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Ennis, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–6
Penalties (20)
- P1 2:26BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:26BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:16BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:16BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:00BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P2 14:20BOSAdam McQuaid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:05BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:05BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:05BOSShawn Thornton: Instigator2 min
- P2 19:05BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:05BOSShawn Thornton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:37BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:37BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:37BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:37BOSAdam McQuaid: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:37BUFPatrick Kaleta: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:37BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:37BOSMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:37BOSMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:37BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Boyes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin15:40
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 26–6goals 0–2
- Krejci – Pouliot – Caron7:13
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Krejci – Pouliot – Lucic4:01
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:10
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Seidenberg17:30
xG 0.91–0.47 (66%)attempts 22–11goals 0–2
- Ference – McQuaid11:36
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Ference – Boychuk3:03
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Gerbe – Ennis13:23
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Roy – Pominville – Leino14:24
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 12–14goals 3–0
- McCormick – Ellis – Adam8:11
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Boyes – Gaustad – Kaleta12:02
xG 0.10–0.87 (10%)attempts 4–24goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Regehr – Sekera2:10
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Regehr – Leopold16:26
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers17:01
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 11–22goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).