Thu, Feb 9, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Los Angeles Kings 1, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 03 | 19 | 123 |
| FLA | 05 | 26 | 112 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:52FLASean BergenheimAssists: Marcel Goc, Mike Weaver · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 17:14FLAMike SantorelliGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Shawn Matthias · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 17:32LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:11FLAMatt BradleyENAssists: Shawn Matthias, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:46FLATomas Kopecky: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:32FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:51LAKJustin Williams: Holding2 min
- P2 19:40LAKTrent Hunter: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHunter – Fraser – Richardson6:11
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar10:51
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Lewis – Loktionov – Clifford7:53
xG 0.10–0.03 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Kopitar2:24
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez10:17
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Doughty15:44
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Martinez – Doughty3:08
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg13:50
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Bradley – Madden – Barch6:17
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim9:50
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Santorelli – Matthias8:39
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Ellerby11:02
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Weaver – Garrison14:17
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson15:22
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).