Sat, Feb 11, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 28 | 06 | 04 | 01 | 219 |
| STL | 211 | 013 | 018 | 12 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:00COLShane O'BrienAssists: David Van Der Gulik · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:12STLDavid PerronPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 16:17STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 19:09COLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 3:18STLCarlo ColaiacovoGWGAssists: Patrik Berglund, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:42COLJay McClement: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:20COLChuck Kobasew: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:31COLRyan O'Byrne: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:54STLScott Nichol: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:36STLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 19:19COLPeter Mueller: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:33COLShane O'Brien: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMueller – O'Reilly – Landeskog9:37
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Van Der Gulik – McLeod2:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McClement – Winnik5:06
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Jones – Stastny17:18
xG 0.16–1.07 (13%)attempts 4–26goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Wilson4:08
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Barrie4:49
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Hejda – Barrie3:36
xG 0.02–0.03 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Stewart – Berglund10:58
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Backes – Oshie – Perron13:15
xG 0.53–0.25 (67%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Porter – Sobotka9:31
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Nichol – Reaves – Grachev5:55
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo16:51
xG 1.03–0.30 (78%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk15:56
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole10:45
xG 0.15–0.01 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).