Tue, Feb 14, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 010 | 06 | 15 | 121 |
| DET | 220 | 011 | 16 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:15DETBrad StuartGWGAssists: Darren Helm · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 15:11DETJiri HudlerAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ian White · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 19:27DALAdam BurishAssists: Michael Ryder, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:24DALJamie Benn: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 14:13DALAdam Burish: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:43DALSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:58DALSteve Ott: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:16DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P2 18:32DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:32DETDrew Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:26DALPhilip Larsen: Interference2 min
- P3 15:11DALMike Ribeiro: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:23DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBurish – Dowell – Wandell6:58
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Ott – Benn – Vincour9:45
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom7:40
xG 0.30–0.52 (37%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson13:49
xG 0.19–1.50 (11%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski15:39
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Fistric – Larsen10:40
xG 0.19–0.64 (23%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Daley – Grossmann12:43
xG 0.46–1.32 (26%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen11:01
xG 1.29–0.10 (93%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler9:08
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Helm9:25
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak5:25
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White16:03
xG 1.82–0.64 (74%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Kindl10:51
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall12:30
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).