Sun, Feb 19, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 17 | 19 | 226 |
| BUF | 27 | 110 | 37 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tyler Myers, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 4:16BUFDerek RoyAssists: Jason Pominville, Christian Ehrhoff · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 2:52BUFPaul GaustadGWGAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–3
- P2 3:39PITDeryk EngellandAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 5:05PITJordan StaalPPAssists: James Neal, Steve Sullivan · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 6:10BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Thomas Vanek · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 8:32BUFDerek RoySHAssists: Jason Pominville, Christian Ehrhoff · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 16:43BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Zack Kassian, Ville Leino · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:09PITMatt Niskanen: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:52BUFVille Leino: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:39BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:38PITPascal Dupuis: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:46PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:36PITChris Kunitz: Broken stick2 min
- P3 3:33BUFRobyn Regehr: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:33PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:33BUFNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:39BUFJordan Leopold: Holding2 min
- P3 14:35PITJames Neal: Charging2 min
- P3 16:03PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:03BUFDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Kunitz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPark – Adams – Vitale3:53
xG 0.14–0.05 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal10:01
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Sullivan – Dupuis – Staal4:29
xG 0.03–0.16 (16%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
- Asham – Cooke – Jeffrey5:05
xG 0.06–0.49 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Michalek4:41
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Engelland – Niskanen2:44
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Martin – Engelland14:27
xG 0.58–0.48 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Pominville – Vanek8:11
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 16–3goals 2–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe13:32
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Boyes – Ellis – Kassian7:39
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Leino – Ennis8:17
xG 0.08–0.41 (16%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Myers12:44
xG 0.73–0.61 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Regehr – Sekera13:44
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Weber13:06
xG 0.12–0.31 (29%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).