Thu, Feb 23, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 18 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 328 |
| FLA | 011 | 114 | 114 | 04 | 0 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:23FLAMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 19:40MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Dany Heatley, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 1:14MINMatt CullenPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–1
- P3 15:48FLASean BergenheimAssists: Brian Campbell, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Erik Christensen scored
- 2. FLA Kris Versteeg stopped
- 3. MIN Matt Cullen scored
- 4. FLA Sean Bergenheim stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:52FLAEd Jovanovski: Interference2 min
- P1 16:51FLAKris Versteeg: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:29MINNick Schultz: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:11MINDevin Setoguchi: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 0:42FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:33MINMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Brodziak – Setoguchi12:28
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Cullen – Johnson – Powe12:30
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Christensen – Rau – Clutterbuck8:58
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Peters – Ortmeyer – Kassian3:39
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Zidlicky14:02
xG 0.76–0.35 (68%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon15:47
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Schultz – Prosser15:02
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 12–25goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Kopecky – Bergenheim11:32
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Barch – Matsumoto – Repik2:21
xG 0.01–0.02 (33%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg16:37
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Skille – Matthias9:16
xG 0.06–0.55 (9%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Gudbranson12:12
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson3:20
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Strachan – Ellerby11:09
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).