Fri, Mar 2, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
New York Rangers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 13 | 18 | 17 | 01 | 319 |
| TBL | 013 | 111 | 26 | 11 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:09NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:43NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 7:09TBLTom PyattAssists: Brett Connolly, Brian Lee · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 3:37TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 10:17TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brian Lee, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 16:33NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Marian Gaborik, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 1:58TBLRyan MaloneGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:33NYRDan Girardi: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:48NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:48TBLBrett Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:42NYRRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:57TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:00TBLKeith Aulie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:33NYRCarl Hagelin: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Rupp – Dubinsky – Scott6:50
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Mitchell – Hagelin10:12
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Dubinsky2:01
xG 0.03–0.08 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan8:31
xG 0.06–0.47 (11%)attempts 1–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Woywitka – Bickel7:26
xG 0.16–0.21 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi6:37
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh6:38
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos15:58
xG 0.97–0.30 (76%)attempts 25–10goals 2–1
- Hall – Malone – Thompson4:12
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Malone – Pyatt – Connolly2:24
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hall – Thompson – Wyman8:40
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCommodore – Lee4:07
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Clark – Brewer5:48
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Clark – Mikkelson2:07
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).