Sat, Mar 3, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 5, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 311 | 06 | 28 | 525 |
| VAN | 012 | 113 | 210 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55BUFVille LeinoAssists: Patrick Kaleta, Nathan Gerbe · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 3:44BUFVille LeinoAssists: Patrick Kaleta, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–0
- P1 5:10BUFBrad BoyesAssists: Corey Tropp · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 15:37VANDavid BoothAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 2:36BUFChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Brad Boyes, Matt Ellis · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 3:43VANDavid BoothAssists: Zack Kassian · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 17:14VANZack KassianAssists: Ryan Kesler, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 18:57BUFTyler EnnisENAssists: Drew Stafford, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:39VANAaron Rome: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 7:34BUFPatrick Kaleta: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:51VANZack Kassian: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:30BUFTyler Ennis: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:37BUFAlexander Sulzer: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:00VANRyan Kesler: Holding2 min
- P2 19:11BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKaleta – Gerbe – Leino9:12
xG 0.99–0.09 (91%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Stafford – Hodgson – Ennis11:58
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Boyes – Ellis – Tropp10:07
xG 0.13–0.23 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 2–0
- Roy – Pominville – Vanek8:33
xG 0.13–0.58 (18%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Myers13:49
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Sekera – Weber14:57
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers2:02
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMalhotra – Lapierre – Raymond3:33
xG 0.17–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Higgins – Hansen9:13
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Kesler – Booth – Kassian6:01
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Kesler – Booth – Raymond5:00
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Edler3:28
xG 0.10–0.04 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Salo – Edler6:48
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Salo – Hamhuis4:26
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).