Sun, Mar 4, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 2, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 212 | 08 | 05 | 225 |
| FLA | 09 | 314 | 15 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:23OTTJared CowenAssists: Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 18:32OTTChris NeilAssists: Jim O'Brien, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
- P2 0:33FLAMarcel GocAssists: Mike Weaver, Tomas Kopecky · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 2:54FLAKrys BarchAssists: Jack Skille, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 11:03FLAMikael SamuelssonPPGWGAssists: Stephen Weiss, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 18:34FLAJack SkilleAssists: Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:27FLASean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:03OTTChris Neil: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 19:43OTTJason Spezza: Interference2 min
- P3 11:00OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:06OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:43FLAJason Garrison: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Foligno – O'Brien9:08
xG 1.15–0.15 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Klinkhammer – Turris12:06
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Konopka – Greening – Condra5:16
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler9:59
xG 0.21–0.76 (21%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Cowen11:11
xG 0.95–0.27 (78%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Phillips – Gilroy12:33
xG 0.74–0.40 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Kuba – Karlsson15:59
xG 0.56–1.10 (34%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSmithson – Kopecky – Goc10:28
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Barch – Santorelli – Skille3:18
xG 0.37–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Weiss – Bergenheim11:08
xG 0.34–0.86 (29%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Wolski – Matthias8:36
xG 0.22–0.74 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Ellerby17:23
xG 1.00–0.46 (69%)attempts 17–19goals 2–0
- Jovanovski – Strachan10:00
xG 0.41–0.68 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Campbell – Garrison15:44
xG 0.62–1.14 (35%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).