Tue, Mar 6, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 412 | 09 | 533 |
| TOR | 17 | 210 | 112 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01TORCarl GunnarssonAssists: Tim Connolly, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:58BOSJordan CaronAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Joe Corvo · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 0:57TORJohn-Michael LilesPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 2:02BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Krejci · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 2:43BOSChris KellyAssists: Jordan Caron, Benoit Pouliot · Snap, 0.44 xG3–2
- P2 9:52TORPhil KesselPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 13:34BOSJordan CaronAssists: Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P2 16:09BOSTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Greg Zanon · Snap, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 13:13TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–4
Penalties (13)
- P2 0:31BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:45TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:45BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:36TORColby Armstrong: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:36BOSDennis Seidenberg: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 8:36BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:56BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00TORTim Connolly: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00TORTim Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:30TORMatthew Lombardi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:54BOSZdeno Chara: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:43BOSChris Kelly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Steckel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Pouliot – Caron4:13
xG 0.93–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Rolston – Bergeron – Marchand9:27
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Seguin14:31
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 21–9goals 2–1
- Thornton – Campbell – MacDermid4:07
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Seidenberg2:39
xG 0.83–0.01 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Chara – Boychuk15:24
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:07
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin2:07
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Lombardi – Armstrong – Rosehill3:43
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – Kulemin – Bozak2:31
xG 0.03–0.02 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kessel3:14
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Liles – Komisarek11:29
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Liles – Gardiner2:05
xG 0.01–0.22 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson17:34
xG 0.11–0.44 (20%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).