Tue, Mar 6, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Montréal Canadiens 4, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 19 | 210 | 428 |
| CGY | 218 | 210 | 16 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:06CGYDavid MossAssists: Mark Giordano, Curtis Glencross · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 12:21CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Matt Stajan, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 19:56MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Lars Eller, Tomas Kaberle · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 9:28MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Chris Campoli, Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 13:44CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Curtis Glencross, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 18:42CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Tanguay · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 7:16CGYCurtis GlencrossGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 8:57MTLLars EllerAssists: Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 12:06MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: P.K. Subban, Erik Cole · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:39CGYJarome Iginla: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:47CGYJay Bouwmeester: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:38MTLTomas Kaberle: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:22MTLLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P2 18:22CGYTom Kostopoulos: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:17MTLRyan White: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Nokelainen – Staubitz – Engqvist6:34
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Leblanc11:05
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- White – Geoffrion – Eller10:13
xG 0.15–0.54 (22%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:49
xG 0.35–0.83 (30%)attempts 15–11goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Subban2:08
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Emelin5:17
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Campoli – Weber5:58
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Moss – Glencross10:39
xG 0.70–0.17 (80%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Kolanos – Desbiens – Nemisz5:58
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan11:24
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Iginla – Kostopoulos – Horak3:24
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie12:54
xG 0.87–0.20 (81%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Hannan – Giordano12:39
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
- Bouwmeester – Giordano2:18
xG 0.25–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).