Mon, Mar 12, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 113 | 110 | 333 |
| EDM | 19 | 17 | 06 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Tommy Wingels, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–0
- P1 19:10EDMRyan WhitneyAssists: Nick Schultz, Eric Belanger · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:36SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.57 xG2–1
- P2 14:54EDMTaylor HallUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 0:38SJSLogan CouturePPGWGAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:37EDMJeff Petry: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:37SJSDaniel Winnik: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:24SJSDouglas Murray: Holding2 min
- P2 11:29EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:12EDMLinus Omark: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:47EDMRyan Smyth: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Mitchell – Wingels8:35
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Couture13:12
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Winnik14:15
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Desjardins – Ferriero – Galiardi6:26
xG 0.01–0.21 (4%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic8:00
xG 0.88–0.03 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Boyle – Braun10:37
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Murray – Vlasic4:22
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Eager – Jones6:49
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:41
xG 0.75–0.78 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Petrell9:01
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Omark11:08
xG 0.23–0.96 (20%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Whitney12:53
xG 0.38–0.30 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry15:31
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Sutton – Potter13:05
xG 0.48–0.93 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).