Wed, Mar 14, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Colorado Avalanche 5, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 214 | 111 | 116 | 01 | 1 | 542 |
| BUF | 211 | 13 | 18 | 02 | 0 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Tyler Ennis, Drew Stafford · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:55COLJamie McGinnAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 14:42BUFDrew StaffordSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 19:08COLDavid JonesAssists: Shane O'Brien, Ryan Wilson · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 5:35COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Peter Mueller, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.30 xG3–2
- P2 11:01BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Drew Stafford, Tyler Ennis · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 1:55BUFAlexander SulzerAssists: Brad Boyes, Tyler Ennis · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:58COLJamie McGinnAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. BUF Brad Boyes stopped
- 2. COL Milan Hejduk stopped
- 3. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 4. COL Peter Mueller scored
- 5. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:50BUFAlexander Sulzer: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:45BUFCody Hodgson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:49COLShane O'Brien: Kneeing2 min
- P2 15:36BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:18BUFRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:18COLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:18COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:50BUFPatrick Kaleta: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – McGinn9:42
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 2–2
- Downie – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:41
xG 0.86–0.70 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- McClement – Porter – McLeod7:38
xG 0.04–0.18 (19%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Mueller – Olver8:04
xG 0.10–0.59 (15%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Wilson15:12
xG 1.12–0.66 (63%)attempts 26–9goals 1–1
- O'Byrne – Hejda13:43
xG 0.37–0.32 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Johnson11:17
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – McCormick – Tropp5:42
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Kaleta – Leino – Hodgson10:09
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Roy – Pominville – Vanek12:10
xG 0.60–0.59 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno10:10
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer14:20
xG 1.30–0.37 (78%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Weber – McNabb11:44
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Regehr – Leopold15:52
xG 0.22–0.53 (30%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).