Wed, Mar 14, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Phoenix Coyotes 5, Vancouver Canucks 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 213 | 213 | 17 | 533 |
| VAN | 218 | 115 | 110 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:18VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Jannik Hansen, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 9:39VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 11:22PHXRostislav KleslaAssists: Antoine Vermette, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P1 16:20PHXShane DoanAssists: Antoine Vermette, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 7:58PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 12:22VANDavid BoothPPAssists: Chris Higgins, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P2 18:41PHXGilbert BruleAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Keith Yandle · Deflected, 0.30 xG4–3
- P3 1:38PHXAntoine VermettePPGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–3
- P3 12:11VANDan HamhuisAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.37 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:50PHXMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:35PHXTaylor Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:48VANDale Weise: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:36PHXRostislav Klesla: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:29VANKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Doan – Vermette2:09
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Bissonnette – Boedker4:38
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vermette – Boedker2:25
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Gordon – Korpikoski11:49
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Yandle2:21
xG 0.43–0.07 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Schlemko5:23
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Yandle14:21
xG 0.61–0.60 (51%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPahlsson – Burrows – Hansen10:42
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Booth14:48
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Kassian7:08
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Raymond12:52
xG 0.29–0.69 (30%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev16:13
xG 1.26–0.42 (75%)attempts 21–13goals 2–0
- Salo – Hamhuis3:40
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Salo – Gragnani10:47
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).