Thu, Mar 15, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 14 | 210 | 014 | 328 |
| TBL | 09 | 012 | 114 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09TORJohn-Michael LilesPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:27TORJoey CrabbGWGAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 12:28TORJake GardinerAssists: Matthew Lombardi · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 19:34TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Brett Clark · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:07TBLBrian Lee: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 2:27TORMike Komisarek: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:08TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P2 3:51TBLTim Wallace: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:47TORMikhail Grabovski: Holding2 min
- P2 11:54TBLTim Wallace: Abusive language2 min
- P2 19:38TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:38TBLSteven Stamkos: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:38TORDion Phaneuf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:18TORCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:06TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:00TBLAdam Hall: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:38TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:38TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:38TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Frattin – Ashton10:13
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Connolly – Steckel – Crabb10:15
xG 0.09–0.16 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Kessel – Bozak10:00
xG 0.20–0.43 (32%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gardiner6:49
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Liles – Franson5:11
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson12:46
xG 0.29–0.30 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Malone – Stamkos4:43
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Wyman3:31
xG 0.10–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Malone – Shannon – Connolly2:14
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Malone – Pyatt – Connolly2:35
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCommodore – Aulie5:54
xG 0.10–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lee – Hedman3:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Mikkelson – Aulie3:18
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).