Tue, Mar 20, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 113 | 314 | 534 |
| TOR | 15 | 15 | 04 | 214 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:24TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Mike Komisarek · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 15:34NYIJosh BaileyAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 4:12TORMatthew LombardiAssists: Jake Gardiner, Colby Armstrong · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 13:08NYIDavid UllstromAssists: Michael Grabner, Casey Cizikas · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 13:56NYIMatt MoulsonPPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 15:43NYIPA ParenteauAssists: Mark Streit · Snap, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 18:25NYIMatt MoulsonENAssists: PA Parenteau, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:48TORLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:53TORMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:34NYIKyle Okposo: Interference2 min
- P3 0:56TORMikhail Grabovski: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:24TORMatt Frattin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Martin – Niederreiter9:53
xG 0.92–0.21 (81%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:36
xG 0.74–0.05 (94%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:25
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Grabner – Ullstrom – Cizikas8:44
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Reese14:57
xG 0.86–0.24 (78%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:02
xG 0.55–0.05 (92%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Staios – Eaton11:18
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Lombardi – Kessel – Bozak2:47
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Grabovski – Frattin – Ashton9:33
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Lombardi – Armstrong – Rosehill4:47
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Kessel – Bozak11:52
xG 0.12–0.51 (20%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Gardiner2:53
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Phaneuf2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Liles – Schenn2:11
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).