Wed, Mar 21, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 0, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 015 | 07 | 012 | 034 |
| BUF | 110 | 111 | 110 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15BUFCody HodgsonGWGAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Corey Tropp · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 2:31BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Ville Leino, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 12:45BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.31 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:47BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:47MTLBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:55BUFVille Leino: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:51MTLLouis Leblanc: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:22BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:30MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:56MTLBrad Staubitz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:42MTLErik Cole: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:59BUFThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:40MTLMax Pacioretty: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:30MTLP.K. Subban: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:30MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBlunden – White – Leblanc9:10
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Eller12:22
xG 0.66–0.45 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Nokelainen – Staubitz – Palushaj4:59
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:26
xG 0.40–0.89 (31%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban13:35
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin7:01
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Campoli – Subban2:19
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Tropp – Hodgson11:28
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Roy – Pominville – Leino12:38
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Boyes – McCormick – Turnbull4:22
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno10:27
xG 0.43–1.39 (23%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer13:57
xG 1.14–0.41 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Regehr – Sekera13:59
xG 0.84–0.29 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Sekera2:01
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).