Fri, Mar 23, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 19 | 019 | 140 |
| CBJ | 16 | 28 | 212 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:50CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Jack Johnson, David Savard · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 9:03CBJR.J. UmbergerPPGWGAssists: Nikita Nikitin, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 13:16CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Brandon Sutter, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 14:36CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Derick Brassard, Nikita Nikitin · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 14:58CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.24 xG1–4
- P3 16:45CBJMark LetestuAssists: Vinny Prospal, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:21CBJMark Letestu: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:45CBJRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P2 8:35CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 10:45CARBryan Allen: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:30CBJBrett Lebda: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:55CBJDerick Brassard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:49CARJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:49CBJColton Gillies: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Jokinen – Skinner6:12
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Bowman9:06
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- LaRose – Staal – Tlusty11:31
xG 0.60–0.52 (54%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
- Jokinen – Brent – Skinner3:32
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Gleason13:18
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk8:27
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Pitkanen – McBain14:07
xG 0.44–0.68 (39%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Brassard – Atkinson10:23
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Boll – Gillies – Johansen3:28
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boyce – Russell – Dorsett2:32
xG 0.01–0.04 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Letestu7:54
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard15:34
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Lebda – Nikitin13:33
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 6–13goals 2–0
- Johnson – Moore12:05
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).