Sun, Mar 25, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 013 | 513 | 112 | 638 |
| CBJ | 111 | 17 | 114 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:46CBJMark LetestuAssists: Aaron Johnson · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 3:40EDMRyan JonesAssists: Ryan Whitney, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:42CBJRick NashUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–2
- P2 11:40EDMChris VandeVeldeAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 14:28EDMLadislav SmidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan Jones · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 16:00EDMBen EagerGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 19:29EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 14:22CBJDerick BrassardPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–3
- P3 18:10EDMEric BelangerENAssists: Ryan Jones, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.51 xG6–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:13EDMRyan Smyth: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:08CBJRick Nash: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:28EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:36CBJNikita Nikitin: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:42EDMLinus Omark: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 9:39CBJDarryl Boyce: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:39EDMEric Belanger: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:10CBJAaron Johnson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:31CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:31EDMChris VandeVelde: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:44EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:48EDMCorey Potter: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:37CBJColton Gillies: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:28EDMTeemu Hartikainen: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 17:52EDMBen Eager: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Letestu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Hartikainen12:06
xG 0.58–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins8:59
xG 0.80–0.46 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Hordichuk – Eager – VandeVelde4:44
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Omark5:20
xG 0.11–0.72 (13%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhitney – Petry3:19
xG 0.39–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry8:57
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Schultz – Potter3:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBoyce – Russell – Dorsett5:24
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Umberger – Brassard – Atkinson9:17
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Boll – Gillies – Johansen5:08
xG 0.01–0.04 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Letestu10:35
xG 0.80–1.04 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Moore6:47
xG 0.66–0.04 (94%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Lebda – Nikitin12:14
xG 0.40–0.84 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Johnson – Savard12:20
xG 0.25–0.80 (24%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).