Mon, Mar 26, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 02 | 36 | 515 |
| PHI | 010 | 216 | 112 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08TBLRyan MaloneSHAssists: Trevor Smith · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 19:58TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 3:21PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Brayden Schenn, Pavel Kubina · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 18:18PHIMatt ReadAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 2:27TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Tim Wallace, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 17:11TBLJT WymanGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 18:47PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Daniel Brière, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.00 xG4–3
- P3 19:56TBLTom PyattENAssists: Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:13TBLBrett Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:03TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P1 19:01PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
- P1 19:54PHIDaniel Brière: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:38TBLMike Commodore: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:07PHIZac Rinaldo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:36TBLRyan Malone: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:33PHIJaromir Jagr: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:59TBLMike Commodore: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:59TBLTrevor Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Wyman – Smith – Labrie2:42
xG 0.00–0.06 (3%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos10:40
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Wyman – Wallace – Smith2:47
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Malone – Pyatt – Connolly6:53
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Commodore – Aulie2:42
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Brewer – Commodore3:00
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Clark – Brewer2:55
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux9:59
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier4:43
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Voracek – Wellwood – Read4:57
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier7:41
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Carle10:13
xG 0.88–0.27 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Coburn – Grossmann15:50
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Kubina – Gustafsson13:18
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).