Tue, Mar 27, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 211 | 37 | 07 | 525 |
| PIT | 017 | 215 | 122 | 354 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Dylan Reese, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 19:55NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 1:42PITTyler KennedyAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Brian Strait · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 4:10PITJames NealAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 12:48NYIKyle OkposoUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 15:20NYIDavid UllstromPPGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 18:08NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Josh Bailey, Dylan Reese · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 15:42PITJames NealPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Steve Sullivan · Snap, 0.14 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:15PITBrian Strait: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:35NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:04NYICasey Cizikas: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:54PITSteve Sullivan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:28PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:10PITBrad Thiessen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:02PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:02NYIAndrew MacDonald: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:12NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey9:49
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 3–0
- Pandolfo – Martin – Cizikas5:15
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Grabner – Martin2:44
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:34
xG 0.34–0.80 (30%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Reese10:47
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Staios – Jurcina6:02
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Streit – Jurcina4:41
xG 0.03–0.32 (8%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kennedy – Crosby2:32
xG 0.29–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Neal2:07
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Park – Asham – Adams3:30
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Dupuis – Crosby3:47
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Strait10:23
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Engelland – Despres9:43
xG 0.30–0.31 (50%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Martin – Engelland2:01
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).