Tue, Mar 27, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 5, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 215 | 210 | 16 | 531 |
| WSH | 010 | 116 | 019 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:45BUFCody McCormickAssists: Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:05BUFDrew StaffordGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P2 2:31BUFThomas VanekAssists: Cody Hodgson, Corey Tropp · Slap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 5:07WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Jason Chimera, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 17:32BUFJason PominvilleSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 9:29BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Ennis, Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:26BUFPatrick Kaleta: Interference2 min
- P2 10:01WSHDennis Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:53BUFRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:22BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P3 9:42BUFAndrej Sekera: Holding2 min
- P3 19:45WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:45BUFTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Foligno11:11
xG 1.09–0.38 (74%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Vanek – Tropp – Hodgson11:28
xG 0.92–0.86 (52%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- Roy – Pominville – Leino13:21
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Boyes – McCormick – Kaleta7:16
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Myers12:16
xG 0.96–0.69 (58%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Sulzer – Sekera2:31
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Sulzer – Myers5:30
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Brouwer – Beagle8:42
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Knuble – Aucoin – Ovechkin2:48
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ovechkin – Johansson3:09
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Johansson5:51
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Green15:43
xG 0.92–0.65 (59%)attempts 27–17goals 1–1
- Carlson – Orlov6:36
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Hamrlik – Wideman2:28
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).