Fri, Mar 30, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 28 | 210 | 427 |
| DET | 07 | 017 | 18 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:05NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Hal Gill · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 19:27NSHFrancis BouillonGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–0
- P3 2:40NSHAlexander RadulovAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Pekka Rinne · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 16:57DETJiri HudlerAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 19:20NSHShea WeberENAssists: David Legwand · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:43DETTodd Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:42NSHPaul Gaustad: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:04NSHNick Spaling: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:24NSHAlexander Radulov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:38DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Kostitsyn – Radulov3:50
xG 0.38–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Legwand – Radulov – Hornqvist8:10
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Tootoo – Bourque2:43
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Spaling – Bourque2:31
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Josi15:16
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Klein13:48
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber15:18
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Miller – Abdelkader5:30
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler13:16
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen10:48
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Nyquist4:57
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall14:59
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Kindl11:02
xG 0.57–0.35 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – White15:17
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).