Sat, Mar 31, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 115 | 29 | 332 |
| TOR | 17 | 214 | 18 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32TORJoey CrabbSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 10:59BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Drew Stafford, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 15:17TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 19:59TORJohn-Michael LilesAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Joey Crabb · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–3
- P3 6:48BUFVille LeinoAssists: Jason Pominville, Alexander Sulzer · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 10:20TORMatt FrattinGWGAssists: Clarke MacArthur, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 17:15BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Marcus Foligno, Tyler Ennis · Snap, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:14TORCarter Ashton: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:23TORMike Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:02TORJay Rosehill: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:22BUFJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:26BUFThomas Vanek: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Foligno13:07
xG 1.01–0.63 (62%)attempts 23–13goals 2–1
- Roy – Pominville – Leino12:11
xG 0.54–0.25 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Boyes – McCormick – Kaleta4:10
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Vanek – Tropp – Hodgson9:59
xG 0.33–1.07 (24%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrennan – McNabb5:46
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Regehr – Leopold11:02
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Regehr – Brennan2:01
xG 0.06–0.40 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestCrabb – MacArthur – Grabovski11:26
xG 0.93–0.41 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Lombardi – Crabb – MacArthur2:43
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Armstrong – Rosehill3:15
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Frattin – Bozak12:10
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson17:07
xG 1.16–0.52 (69%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Liles – Komisarek15:33
xG 1.00–0.58 (63%)attempts 14–21goals 2–0
- Schenn – Gardiner12:32
xG 0.29–0.98 (23%)attempts 7–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).