Mon, Apr 2, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Washington Capitals 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 111 | 115 | 233 |
| TBL | 05 | 210 | 212 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:47WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Mathieu Perreault · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 17:20TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 17:45TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nate Thompson, Tom Pyatt · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 16:43WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 18:57TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Brett Clark, Brian Lee · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:58TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Nate Thompson, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:13WSHMatt Hendricks: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:23WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:48TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min
- P2 5:39TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:39WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:42WSHDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:08TBLBrian Lee: Interference2 min
- P3 12:29WSHDennis Wideman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Semin – Perreault9:22
xG 0.44–0.11 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Knuble – Hendricks – Aucoin5:21
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Laich – Brouwer – Beagle6:34
xG 0.27–0.34 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson10:07
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Green16:46
xG 0.67–0.52 (57%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Wideman – Alzner13:48
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Carlson – Orlov8:06
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stamkos – Brown2:02
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Purcell – Brown2:11
xG 0.03–0.01 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Wyman – Pyatt12:28
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Brown3:10
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Lee13:36
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Brewer – Hedman17:42
xG 0.48–0.49 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Mikkelson – Aulie8:23
xG 0.08–0.50 (13%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).