Sun, Jan 20, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 213 | 09 | 229 |
| BUF | 113 | 113 | 315 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07BUFSteve OttPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 2:23PHISean CouturierAssists: Kurtis Foster, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.45 xG1–1
- P2 4:57PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 15:54BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 14:57BUFTyler MyersPPGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 16:13BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Thomas Vanek, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 19:12BUFThomas VanekENAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–5
Penalties (20)
- P1 1:34PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:34BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:03BUFMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:03PHILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:35PHINicklas Grossmann: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:40BUFRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:16BUFJordan Leopold: Interference2 min
- P2 4:25BUFRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:04BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:04PHIKimmo Timonen: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:17PHIScott Hartnell: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:50PHIScott Laughton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:27PHILuke Schenn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:20PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:20BUFDrew Stafford: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:18BUFSteve Ott: Embellishment2 min
- P3 7:26PHIRuslan Fedotenko: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:00PHILuke Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:47BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P3 15:47PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Fedotenko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Laughton5:49
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier4:11
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Talbot – Wellwood2:27
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Schenn8:13
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoster – Meszaros6:17
xG 0.63–0.04 (94%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Meszaros – Schenn2:41
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann8:03
xG 0.28–0.21 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Foligno9:19
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson8:04
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hecht – Ott – Grigorenko6:03
xG 0.07–0.25 (21%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer9:47
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Regehr – Myers8:13
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Regehr – Sekera4:04
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).