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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 20, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo

Philadelphia Flyers 2, Buffalo Sabres 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 75% of the time.

BUF winsPHI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:08Shot by Giroux, saved by Miller
  3. P1 1:34Hartnell: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Stafford, Ennis, Foligno · PHI Timonen, Hartnell, Voracek, Schenn, Couturier

  4. P1 1:34Foligno: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Stafford, Ennis, Foligno · PHI Timonen, Hartnell, Voracek, Schenn, Couturier

  5. P1 6:03Foligno: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Stafford, Myers, Ennis, Foligno · PHI Timonen, Fedotenko, Talbot, Schenn, Rinaldo

  6. P1 6:03Schenn: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Stafford, Myers, Ennis, Foligno · PHI Timonen, Fedotenko, Talbot, Schenn, Rinaldo

  7. P1 9:34Shot by Vanek, saved by Bryzgalov6v5
  8. P1 9:35Grossmann: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: BUF Hecht, Regehr, Pominville, Vanek, Hodgson, Myers · PHI Fedotenko, Foster, Grossmann, Wellwood, Read

  9. P1 10:06Shot by Leopold, saved by Bryzgalov5v4
  10. P1 10:54Shot by Ennis, saved by Bryzgalov5v4
  11. P1 11:07Goal by Ott (Pominville, Vanek)5v4+16 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Ott, Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Ennis · PHI Timonen, Fedotenko, Coburn, Couturier

  12. P1 12:01Shot by Stafford, saved by Bryzgalov
  13. P1 12:24Shot by Hodgson, saved by Bryzgalov
  14. P1 12:29Shot by Regehr, saved by Bryzgalov
  15. P1 12:40Regehr: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Pominville, Vanek, Hodgson, Myers · PHI Coburn, Grossmann, Simmonds, Read, Laughton

  16. P1 13:14Shot by Simmonds, saved by Miller4v5
  17. P1 13:48Shot by Schenn, saved by Miller4v5
  18. P1 14:50Shot by Hartnell, saved by Miller
  19. P1 15:36Shot by Talbot, saved by Miller
  20. P1 15:41Shot by Schenn, saved by Miller
  21. P1 15:59Shot by Ellis, saved by Bryzgalov
  22. P1 16:29Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Bryzgalov
  23. P1 16:41Shot by Hecht, saved by Bryzgalov
  24. P1 17:04Shot by Stafford, saved by Bryzgalov
  25. P1 17:16Leopold: Interference (2 min)5v6

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Stafford, Sekera, Ennis, Foligno · PHI Timonen, Hartnell, Giroux, Simmonds, Schenn, Schenn

  26. P1 17:29Shot by Simmonds, saved by Miller4v5
  27. P1 19:40Shot by Sekera, saved by Bryzgalov
  28. P1 19:53Shot by Regehr, saved by Bryzgalov
  29. P1 0:00Period end
  30. P2 0:00Period start
  31. P2 0:32Shot by Giroux, saved by Miller
  32. P2 2:00Shot by Voracek, saved by Miller
  33. P2 2:21Shot by Foster, saved by Miller
  34. P2 2:23Goal by Couturier (Foster, Voracek)+21 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Pominville, Vanek, Sekera, Grigorenko · PHI Foster, Meszaros, Voracek, Read, Couturier

  35. P2 2:43Shot by Laughton, saved by Miller
  36. P2 4:25Regehr: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Ellis, Kaleta, Scott, Myers · PHI Fedotenko, Coburn, Giroux, Schenn, Rinaldo, Wellwood

  37. P2 4:57Goal by Giroux (Timonen, Simmonds)4v5+21 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Pominville, Sekera, Hodgson · PHI Timonen, Hartnell, Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds

  38. P2 5:26Shot by Stafford, saved by Bryzgalov
  39. P2 5:47Shot by Hodgson, saved by Bryzgalov
  40. P2 6:02Shot by Ott, saved by Bryzgalov
  41. P2 6:04Kaleta: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Ott, Kaleta, Myers, Grigorenko · PHI Timonen, Hartnell, Meszaros, Giroux, Schenn

  42. P2 6:04Timonen: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Ott, Kaleta, Myers, Grigorenko · PHI Timonen, Hartnell, Meszaros, Giroux, Schenn

  43. P2 6:54Shot by Meszaros, saved by Miller4v4
  44. P2 7:17Hartnell: Boarding (2 min)4v4

    On ice: BUF Pominville, Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Ennis · PHI Hartnell, Meszaros, Giroux, Schenn

  45. P2 9:39Shot by Ott, saved by Bryzgalov
  46. P2 10:32Shot by Hodgson, saved by Bryzgalov
  47. P2 11:45Shot by Ennis, saved by Bryzgalov
  48. P2 12:02Shot by Schenn, saved by Miller
  49. P2 13:50Laughton: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Sulzer, Hodgson · PHI Foster, Meszaros, Simmonds, Read, Laughton

  50. P2 15:04Shot by Vanek, saved by Bryzgalov5v4
  51. P2 15:27Schenn: Hooking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Ott, Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Hodgson · PHI Timonen, Fedotenko, Schenn, Couturier

  52. P2 15:54Goal by Vanek (Stafford, Pominville)5v4+21 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Stafford, Ennis · PHI Talbot, Coburn, Couturier, Laughton

  53. P2 16:08Shot by Laughton, saved by Miller
  54. P2 16:19Shot by Pominville, saved by Bryzgalov
  55. P2 16:28Shot by Laughton, saved by Miller
  56. P2 16:35Shot by Simmonds, saved by Miller
  57. P2 16:59Shot by Hodgson, saved by Bryzgalov
  58. P2 17:22Shot by Ennis, saved by Bryzgalov
  59. P2 18:20Hartnell: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Ehrhoff, Stafford, Ennis, Foligno · PHI Timonen, Hartnell, Giroux, Schenn, Schenn

  60. P2 18:20Stafford: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Ehrhoff, Stafford, Ennis, Foligno · PHI Timonen, Hartnell, Giroux, Schenn, Schenn

  61. P2 19:09Shot by Leopold, saved by Bryzgalov
  62. P2 19:15Shot by Grigorenko, saved by Bryzgalov
  63. P2 19:18Ott: Embellishment (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Hecht, Regehr, Ott, Sekera, Grigorenko · PHI Timonen, Talbot, Voracek, Schenn, Couturier

  64. P2 19:42Shot by Timonen, saved by Miller4v5
  65. P2 19:53Shot by Voracek, saved by Miller4v5
  66. P2 0:00Period end
  67. P3 0:00Period start
  68. P3 0:55Shot by Myers, saved by Bryzgalov4v5
  69. P3 1:21Shot by Simmonds, saved by Miller
  70. P3 1:39Shot by Vanek, saved by Bryzgalov
  71. P3 2:44Shot by Grigorenko, saved by Bryzgalov
  72. P3 4:11Shot by Schenn, saved by Miller
  73. P3 5:50Shot by Read, saved by Miller
  74. P3 6:23Shot by Hartnell, saved by Miller
  75. P3 7:00Shot by Read, saved by Miller
  76. P3 7:26Fedotenko: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Hecht, Regehr, Ott, Myers, Grigorenko · PHI Fedotenko, Foster, Meszaros, Wellwood, Read

  77. P3 9:00Shot by Vanek, saved by Bryzgalov5v4
  78. P3 9:05Shot by Hodgson, saved by Bryzgalov5v4
  79. P3 9:18Shot by Vanek, saved by Bryzgalov5v4
  80. P3 9:24Shot by Vanek, saved by Bryzgalov5v4
  81. P3 9:34Shot by Foster, saved by Miller
  82. P3 12:34Shot by Simmonds, saved by Miller
  83. P3 13:00Shot by Hartnell, saved by Miller
  84. P3 14:00Schenn: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Stafford, Ennis, Foligno · PHI Timonen, Fedotenko, Schenn, Wellwood, Couturier

  85. P3 14:27Shot by Hodgson, saved by Bryzgalov5v4
  86. P3 14:57Goal by Myers (Ennis, Vanek)5v4+35 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Ehrhoff, Vanek, Hodgson, Myers, Ennis · PHI Timonen, Fedotenko, Meszaros, Couturier

  87. P3 15:26Shot by Kaleta, saved by Bryzgalov
  88. P3 15:47Myers: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Hecht, Regehr, Ellis, Kaleta, Myers · PHI Hartnell, Coburn, Meszaros, Schenn, Laughton

  89. P3 15:47Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Hecht, Regehr, Ellis, Kaleta, Myers · PHI Hartnell, Coburn, Meszaros, Schenn, Laughton

  90. P3 16:11Shot by Vanek, saved by Bryzgalov4v4
  91. P3 16:13Goal by Hodgson (Vanek, Sekera)4v4+6 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Vanek, Sekera, Hodgson · PHI Coburn, Meszaros, Giroux, Voracek

  92. P3 16:47Shot by Meszaros, saved by Miller4v4
  93. P3 17:50Shot by Stafford, saved by Bryzgalov
  94. P3 19:12Goal by Vanek (Pominville)5v60 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Leopold, Pominville, Vanek, Hodgson · PHI Timonen, Hartnell, Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Couturier

  95. P3 19:59Shot by Ellis, saved by Bryzgalov
  96. P3 0:00Period end
  97. P3 0:00Final