Mon, Jan 21, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 5, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 39 | 03 | 212 | 524 |
| CGY | 25 | 114 | 16 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Toni Lydman, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 7:23ANASaku KoivuAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Daniel Winnik · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 10:53ANADaniel WinnikAssists: Sheldon Souray, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P1 16:54CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Alex Tanguay · Deflected, 0.20 xG3–1
- P1 19:34CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Jarome Iginla, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 1:13CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Dennis Wideman · Deflected, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 4:02ANADaniel WinnikAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–3
- P3 11:15ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–3
- P3 14:04CGYLee StempniakAssists: TJ Brodie, Roman Horak · Snap, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:47CGYAlex Tanguay: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:15ANAToni Lydman: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:59ANABryan Allen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:29ANACam Fowler: Holding2 min
- P3 6:46CGYRoman Horak: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Palmieri13:54
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano12:13
xG 0.79–0.33 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 3–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Bonino11:31
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Smith-Pelly – Rakell7:04
xG 0.19–0.40 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Sbisa14:07
xG 1.34–0.52 (72%)attempts 11–15goals 4–2
- Lydman – Beauchemin14:55
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Allen – Fowler17:40
xG 0.63–0.92 (41%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Stempniak – Horak12:34
xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Backlund – Baertschi11:43
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Jackman – Comeau – Jones6:00
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Glencross13:35
xG 0.40–1.42 (22%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie5:00
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano7:46
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – Butler3:32
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).