Tue, Jan 22, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 28 | 011 | 27 | 426 |
| CAR | 08 | 113 | 015 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18TBLTom PyattAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Matt Carle · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 11:36TBLCory ConacherGWGAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–0
- P2 3:35CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Alexander Semin · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 1:37TBLKeith AulieAssists: Brendan Mikkelson · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 9:57TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 13:02TBLB.J. Crombeen: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:09CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:29TBLCory Conacher: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:15TBLRyan Malone: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:14CARDrayson Bowman: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:10TBLMatt Carle: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:28CARJussi Jokinen: Interference2 min
- P3 1:56TBLDana Tyrell: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:56CARTim Brent: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:13CARChad LaRose: Interference2 min
- P3 9:36CARJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:28TBLVincent Lecavalier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:20TBLAdam Hall: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:20CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:40CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Purcell – Conacher2:06
xG 0.65–0.04 (95%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Hall – Crombeen – Tyrell3:43
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Pouliot – Purcell6:52
xG 0.22–0.42 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos5:15
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman10:50
xG 1.04–0.48 (68%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Brewer – Carle12:17
xG 0.62–0.86 (42%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
- Mikkelson – Aulie8:43
xG 0.06–0.46 (11%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Tlusty – Staal8:19
xG 1.04–0.14 (88%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Skinner3:34
xG 0.45–0.08 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Brent – Westgarth – Welsh3:07
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Skinner4:33
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Faulk12:54
xG 1.07–0.43 (71%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Corvo – Harrison10:50
xG 0.70–0.45 (61%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Pitkanen – Faulk2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).