Fri, Jan 25, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 014 | 010 | 318 | 342 |
| BUF | 010 | 018 | 113 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:56BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 3:31CARAlexander SeminPPAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 15:10CARJay HarrisonGWGAssists: Eric Staal · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 19:34CARJeff SkinnerENAssists: Tim Gleason, Jay Harrison · Backhand, 0.77 xG3–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:56BUFJordan Leopold: Interference2 min
- P1 1:34CARJordan Staal: Interference2 min
- P1 10:27BUFSteve Ott: Elbowing2 min
- P1 10:27BUFSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:27CARTim Gleason: Instigator2 min
- P1 10:27CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:27CARTim Gleason: Misconduct10 min
- P1 16:32BUFThomas Vanek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:32BUFThomas Vanek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:01CARJeff Skinner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:45CARJoni Pitkanen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:47CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min
- P3 1:37CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:50BUFMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:51BUFThomas Vanek: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Jokinen – LaRose – Bowman7:29
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Brent – Dwyer – Bowman2:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Dalpe – Skinner12:02
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty12:40
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Faulk3:32
xG 0.33–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain16:37
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Corvo – Harrison6:14
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Hodgson12:36
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Hecht – Ott – Kaleta9:41
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno11:21
xG 0.27–0.85 (24%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer12:54
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Regehr – Sekera2:00
xG 0.06–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Leopold – Sekera15:13
xG 0.76–0.79 (49%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).