Sun, Jan 27, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 011 | 08 | 125 |
| TBL | 313 | 05 | 28 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59PHISean CouturierAssists: Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:34TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 16:10TBLEric BrewerGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 18:55TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Sami Salo · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 0:58TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Adam Hall, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–4
- P3 12:29TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:09TBLVincent Lecavalier: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:09PHILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:15TBLB.J. Crombeen: Holding2 min
- P1 7:15TBLB.J. Crombeen: Interference2 min
- P1 7:15TBLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:15PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:51PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 16:27PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:11PHIMike Knuble: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:47TBLBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:26TBLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:35TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:27PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P3 13:16PHIBruno Gervais: Interference2 min
- P3 16:52PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:43TBLDana Tyrell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hall won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Schenn – McGinn9:33
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Knuble – Fedotenko – Sestito3:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Knuble – Fedotenko – Talbot2:42
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Read10:02
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Gervais11:11
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Gervais – Schenn2:20
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Timonen – Schenn10:29
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Malone – Stamkos2:39
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Purcell – Conacher2:29
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Pyatt – Tyrell7:20
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos7:54
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Salo – Hedman13:15
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Lee – Aulie11:16
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Brewer – Carle12:06
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).