Tue, Jan 29, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 27 | 08 | 13 | 424 |
| BUF | 15 | 115 | 110 | 02 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25TORJay McClementAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 14:28BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Marcus Foligno, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 2:28BUFAndrej SekeraAssists: Drew Stafford, Christian Ehrhoff · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 3:40TORMatt FrattinAssists: Cody Franson, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 6:21TORCody FransonAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 7:10BUFMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Mike Weber, Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–3
- OT 4:58TORMatt FrattinGWGAssists: John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:04TORMike Brown: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34TORMike Brown: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:34TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:34BUFMike Weber: Instigator2 min
- P1 17:34BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:34BUFMike Weber: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:46BUFJochen Hecht: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:46BUFJochen Hecht: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Grabovski – Kulemin10:07
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Orr – Steckel – Brown2:30
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Komarov – Frattin – Kadri10:50
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak15:47
xG 0.38–0.61 (38%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser9:55
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson4:36
xG 0.09–0.17 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Fraser – Kostka2:01
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Hodgson16:21
xG 0.56–0.21 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Ott – Stafford – Ennis16:21
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Hecht – Ellis – Foligno3:40
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hecht – Foligno – Grigorenko8:12
xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sekera16:46
xG 0.85–0.25 (77%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Leopold – Sekera2:19
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Brennan8:29
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).