Tue, Jan 29, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 09 | 19 | 127 |
| NYR | 111 | 19 | 08 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57NYRMichael Del ZottoAssists: Benn Ferriero · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 11:31NYRRyan CallahanPPGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P3 7:09PHIKimmo TimonenPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:03PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:27NYRRyan McDonagh: Elbowing2 min
- P2 7:16NYRBrad Richards: Holding2 min
- P2 7:59NYRDerek Stepan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:02PHIMax Talbot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:42PHIMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:42NYRRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:11NYRMarian Gaborik: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 11:12NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:57NYRMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Brière – Schenn8:10
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier5:09
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Knuble – Talbot – Couturier3:28
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Voracek – Schenn – Read2:35
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Gervais6:00
xG 0.35–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Timonen – Schenn13:22
xG 0.83–0.72 (54%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Schenn2:28
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Nash14:56
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Asham – Rupp – Halpern4:02
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Callahan – Hagelin – Stepan6:52
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Ferriero5:21
xG 0.26–0.66 (28%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh12:00
xG 1.08–0.13 (90%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman5:40
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi4:28
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).