Fri, Feb 1, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 3, Detroit Red Wings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 214 | 17 | 05 | 326 |
| DET | 213 | 07 | 311 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Damien Brunner, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:07DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Johan Franzen · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 9:50STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 13:04STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 4:30STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: David Backes, David Perron · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–2
- P3 4:31DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 11:55DETPavel DatsyukPPGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 19:47DETHenrik ZetterbergENAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:48DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:47STLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:30STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:04DETCory Emmerton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:26STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:09DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P1 17:52STLDavid Perron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:57DETKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:01STLVladimir Sobotka: Interference2 min
- P2 14:27STLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:38STLDavid Backes: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 17:49DETDaniel Cleary: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Steen – Tarasenko8:27
xG 0.40–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Stewart – Berglund6:08
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Reaves – Schwartz4:17
xG 0.01–0.13 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron7:49
xG 0.04–0.35 (9%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell9:40
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk10:46
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Redden – Pietrangelo10:34
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Eaves – Abdelkader4:55
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Brunner9:06
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton5:56
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Filppula8:23
xG 0.03–0.25 (10%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson10:57
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Quincey2:17
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Huskins – Kindl8:03
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).