Sun, Feb 3, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 29 | 113 | 433 |
| BUF | 210 | 16 | 04 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46BUFThomas VanekAssists: Jason Pominville, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 8:36FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jerred Smithson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 13:41BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 3:49BUFAlexander SulzerAssists: Thomas Vanek, Cody Hodgson · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 10:21FLAGeorge ParrosAssists: Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 19:06FLAPeter MuellerAssists: Drew Shore, Tomas Kopecky · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–3
- P3 9:27FLABrian CampbellPPGWGAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:44BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:44FLATyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:25BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:25FLAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:40FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:51BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:20BUFMarcus Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestParros – Smithson – Matthias4:09
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg12:30
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
- Kovalev – Kopecky – Goc11:50
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau9:05
xG 0.08–0.74 (9%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov18:36
xG 0.69–0.31 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Weaver – Ellerby2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kuba – Campbell13:59
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Ennis – Foligno13:43
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno2:46
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Ott – Stafford – Grigorenko10:29
xG 0.63–0.57 (52%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- McCormick – Gerbe – Scott2:34
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrennan – Myers11:54
xG 0.95–0.30 (76%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer15:37
xG 0.64–0.37 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Leopold – Weber17:35
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).