Mon, Feb 4, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 220 | 27 | 439 |
| TOR | 118 | 05 | 019 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44TORMatt FrattinAssists: Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:21CARJordan StaalAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Jeff Skinner · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 10:21CAREric StaalPPGWGAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Tim Brent · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 0:43CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 9:58CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:55CARKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:55TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:35CARJamie McBain: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:54CARKevin Westgarth: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:41TORJay McClement: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 11:48TORMark Fraser: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:05CARJamie McBain: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:16TORMichael Kostka: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:46TORKorbinian Holzer: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:21CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:52CARTim Brent: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty9:28
xG 0.80–0.28 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Brent – Wallace – Westgarth3:43
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Bowman7:56
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Skinner11:21
xG 0.49–1.41 (26%)attempts 8–18goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Sanguinetti8:49
xG 0.73–0.15 (83%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Pitkanen – Faulk2:43
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gleason – Faulk15:21
xG 0.70–0.83 (46%)attempts 14–21goals 2–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin13:18
xG 1.09–0.59 (65%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Komarov – Frattin – Kadri8:49
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:01
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Orr – McClement – McLaren4:14
xG 0.04–0.41 (8%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser8:46
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Liles – Holzer14:21
xG 0.99–0.97 (50%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
- Fraser – Holzer2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).