Sun, Feb 17, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 011 | 213 | 435 |
| BUF | 17 | 19 | 117 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35PITPascal DupuisAssists: Brooks Orpik, Chris Kunitz · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 1:27PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–0
- P1 6:32BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 9:16BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Ennis · Deflected, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 5:17BUFSteve OttAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 7:06PITPascal DupuisAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 17:56PITPaul MartinGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:08BUFTyler Myers: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:52BUFJason Pominville: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:38BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
- P1 7:38PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:47PITJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00BUFRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
- P2 7:39PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:39PITTanner Glass: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 11:50BUFJason Pominville: Holding2 min
- P3 2:22BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:22PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:42PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Glass – Vitale2:32
xG 0.26–0.02 (94%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Neal2:17
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Sutter – Bennett5:57
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Neal – Bennett2:18
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Letang6:02
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Bortuzzo3:20
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang10:32
xG 0.62–0.74 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Foligno11:13
xG 1.35–0.36 (79%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson11:38
xG 1.05–0.57 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Hecht – Ott – Gerbe8:38
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- McCormick – Kaleta – Scott3:04
xG 0.02–0.26 (6%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer14:53
xG 1.65–0.92 (64%)attempts 19–15goals 2–2
- Regehr – Myers9:40
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Leopold – Weber12:03
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).