Mon, Feb 18, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 5, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 312 | 117 | 538 |
| COL | 28 | 415 | 05 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43COLAaron PalushajAssists: David Jones, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:30COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Matt Duchene, PA Parenteau · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 17:20NSHSergei KostitsynPPAssists: Craig Smith, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 3:18COLMatt DucheneAssists: PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 10:16NSHMike FisherAssists: Shea Weber, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 11:06COLChuck KobasewAssists: Paul Stastny, Aaron Palushaj · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 13:17NSHColin WilsonAssists: Martin Erat, Jonathon Blum · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
- P2 13:33COLPaul StastnyAssists: David Jones, Aaron Palushaj · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–5
- P2 13:46COLJamie McGinnGWGAssists: Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.11 xG3–6
- P2 19:10NSHJonathon BlumUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG4–6
- P3 18:42NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Fisher, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:43NSHCraig Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:09COLMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min
- P1 12:32NSHRich Clune: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:30COLPatrick Bordeleau: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:27COLJan Hejda: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 4:41COLMatt Hunwick: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:55COLJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Bourque2:06
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Spaling – Smith4:18
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Legwand – Kostitsyn – Wilson2:27
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Bourque7:00
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Ellis9:32
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi14:51
xG 0.66–0.67 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Hannan – Klein2:27
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – Palushaj11:05
xG 0.82–0.34 (71%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene12:04
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Kobasew – Bordeleau – Olver2:52
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Mitchell – McLeod7:37
xG 0.08–0.37 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Elliott10:49
xG 0.94–0.85 (53%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
- Hejda – Barrie13:48
xG 0.46–0.49 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- O'Byrne – Hunwick13:30
xG 0.45–0.58 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).