Tue, Feb 19, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 07 | 19 | 225 |
| TBL | 14 | 16 | 29 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 17:59TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 4:56TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Cory Conacher, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 2:49TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: B.J. Crombeen · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 6:58TBLMatt CarlePPAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 16:08TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 1:40TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:56TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:56TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:56TORMike Brown: Misconduct10 min
- P2 1:34TBLTeddy Purcell: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:52TORJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:06TORBen Scrivens: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:30TORMike Brown: Holding2 min
- P2 15:41TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:29TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:08TORNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:08TBLVictor Hedman: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:08TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:08TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:03TBLKeith Aulie: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:03TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:03TBLKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin2:32
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Orr – MacArthur – Kadri10:17
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Komarov – Kulemin6:15
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:41
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Kostka11:32
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Franson – Fraser8:18
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Holzer11:03
xG 0.31–0.40 (43%)attempts 18–8goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Stamkos – Conacher6:53
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Panik2:02
xG 0.03–0.01 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Killorn6:13
xG 0.11–0.09 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Stamkos – Panik2:41
xG 0.02–0.10 (18%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman12:16
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Lee – Aulie4:59
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Aulie2:56
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).