Thu, Feb 21, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 06 | 013 | 132 |
| TOR | 010 | 215 | 111 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:20BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 1:15TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:04TORJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Michael Kostka · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 14:28TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Cody Franson, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 15:08TORMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:18BUFAlexander Sulzer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:38BUFNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:08BUFKevin Porter: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:55TORClarke MacArthur: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:07TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:07BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:14TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:14BUFNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:36BUFKevin Porter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:20BUFJochen Hecht: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:00TORLeo Komarov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Hodgson9:16
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Hecht – Kaleta – Scott2:26
xG 0.01–0.08 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno6:24
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Ott – Porter – Gerbe5:49
xG 0.06–0.56 (10%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer15:13
xG 1.26–0.70 (64%)attempts 31–13goals 0–1
- Regehr – Myers9:19
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers2:22
xG 0.03–0.07 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Komarov – Kadri9:58
xG 0.89–0.22 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Steckel – Brown – McLaren3:59
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:10
xG 0.47–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- McClement – Grabovski – Kulemin11:00
xG 0.19–0.92 (17%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser11:17
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Kostka13:13
xG 0.83–0.36 (70%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Holzer11:34
xG 0.36–1.05 (26%)attempts 14–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).